Bayesian Regression Modelling in R: Choosing informative priors in rstanarm #rstats

Yesterday, at the last meeting of the Hamburg R User Group in this year, I had the pleasure to give a talk about Bayesian modelling and choosing (informative) priors in the rstanarm-package.

You can download the slides of my talk here.

Thanks to the Stan team and Tristan for proof reading my slides prior (<- hoho) to the talk. Disclaimer: Still, I'm fully responsible for the content of the slides, and I'm to blame for any false statements or errors in the code…

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ggeffects: Create Tidy Data Frames of Marginal Effects for ‚ggplot‘ from Model Outputs #rstats

Aim of the ggeffects-package

The aim of the ggeffects-package is similar to the broom-package: transforming “untidy” input into a tidy data frame, especially for further use with ggplot. However, ggeffects does not return model-summaries; rather, this package computes marginal effects at the mean or average marginal effects from statistical models and returns the result as tidy data frame (as tibbles, to be more precisely).

Since the focus lies on plotting the data (the marginal effects), at least one model term needs to be specified for which the effects are computed. It is also possible to compute marginal effects for model terms, grouped by the levels of another model’s predictor. The package also allows plotting marginal effects for two- or three-way-interactions, or for specific values of a model term only. Examples are shown below.

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Visual interpretation of interaction terms in linear models with ggplot #rstats

I haven’t used interaction terms in (generalized) linear model quite often yet. However, recently I have had some situations where I tried to compute regression models with interaction terms and was wondering how to interprete the results. Just looking at the estimates won’t help much in such cases.

One approach used by some people is to compute the regressions with subgroups for each category of one interaction term. Let’s say predictor A has a 0/1 coding and predictor B is a continuous scale from 1 to 10, you fit a model for all cases with A=0 (hence excluding A from the model, no interaction of A and B), and for all cases with A=1 and compare the estimates of predictor B in each fitted model. This may give you an impression under which condition (i.e. in which subgroup) A has a stronger effect on B (higher interaction), but of course you don’t have the correct estimate values compared to a fitted model that includes both the interaction terms A and B.

Another approach is to calculate the results of y by hand, using the formula:
y = b0 + b1*predictorA + b2*predictorB + b3*predictorA*predictorB
This is quite complex and time-comsuming, especially if both predictors have several categories. However, this approach gives you a correct impression of the interaction between A and B. I investigated further on this topic and found this nice blogpost on interpreting interactions in regression (and a follow up), which explains very well how to calculate and interprete interaction terms.

Based on this knowledge, I thought of an automatization of calculating and visualizing interaction terms in linear models using R and ggplot.

Read on …